Delaware for Obama

Tuesday, January 02, 2007

ARG Poll

There's a new poll out from ARG, and it doesn't look so hot for Obama:


Democrats IA NV SC NH
---------- --- --- --- ---
Biden 2% 1% 2% 1%
Clark 1% 4% 2% 2%
Clinton 31% 37% 34% 27%
Dodd 2% 2% - 1%
Edwards 20% 8% 31% 18%
Gravel 1% 1% - -
Kerry 2% 9% 3% 6%
Kucinich 5% 1% 2% 4%
Obama 10% 12% 10% 21%
Richardson 1% 1% 1% 2%
Vilsack 17% 1% - 1%
Undecided 8% 23% 15% 17%


I don't understand the fade in Iowa, unless it represents undecideds choosing
Hillary (31%), or perhaps defections of Obama supporters (10%) to the Kucinich camp (5% for 5th place). Hillary Clinton voted against ethanol subsidies - Obama voted in favor of them. I don't think Clinton's lead in Iowa will hold up for long. Obama should get a nice boost when he declares his intentions to run, especially considering the fact that Iowa and Illinois are midwestern neighbors. For now, though, the momentum belongs to Hillary, while Edwards (20%) and Vilsack (17%) hold position and sadly, Obama slips to fourth.

Obama places second in Nevada (12%), but the reason for Hillary's large lead here (37%) is obvious to me: name recognition. No one has campaigned in Nevada yet (23% undecided), so the candidate everyone knows gets the early lead. I hope that Obama will be able to connect with western voters. Kerry takes third with 9% and Edwards is next with 8%.

South Carolina is another state that could change once Obama (10%) starts making appearances here. It looks like the African-American vote is favoring Hillary (34%), while the white vote is likely sympathetic to Carolinan John Edwards (31%). Beating third place in SC could be tough due to Obama's progressive social stances. No other candidate gets more than 5% here.

ARG's numbers for New Hampshire are not as favorable to Obama (21%) as Research 2000's were, but still look positive for Barack. He trails Hillary (27%) by only 6%, and beats Edwards (18%) by 3%. Kerry is a very distant 4th at 6%.

Learnings:

  1. Don't hold too much stock in any one poll
  2. Obama and Clinton are the only candidates that are always in the double digits.
  3. Vilsack is a one-state pony.
  4. Gravel, Richardson, and Dodd don't rate.
  5. Neither does Joe Biden - stay in the Senate, Joe.
  6. Edwards may have limited appeal in the West.
  7. Kucinich might siphon off just enough midwestern votes from Obama to be a threat.
  8. Kerry doesn't break 10%.
  9. Clark doesn't break 5%.
  10. A surprisingly low number of undecideds this far out! Plenty of time for people to change their minds, though.

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